Mobile broadband applications will drive networking trends over the next five years with a buggy whip made from a compound annual growth rate of 131 percent, according to a new report by Cisco.
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Cisco’s report, the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Mobile Forecast for 2008-2013, says global mobile traffic will increase 66-fold between 2008 and 2013. These projections reflect a transformation in the fourth-generation, or 4G, mobile Internet that will enable consumers to view more mobile video and access a variety of mobile broadband services, the report said.
According to Cisco, global mobile traffic will exceed two exabytes per month by 2013 (that’s 18 zeros worth or 1 billion gigabytes) and is on pace to reach one exabyte per month in half the time that achieved by fixed data traffic. Other findings indicate nearly 64 percent of the world's mobile traffic will be video by 2013; mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop air or data cards will constitute more than 80 percent of global mobile traffic by 2013; Latin America will have the strongest mobile growth at 166 percent CAGR; the Asia-Pacific region will be next at 146 percent and will account for one-third of all mobile data traffic by 2013.
Suraj Shetty, vice president of service provider marketing at Cisco, said in a statement, "The evolving 4G mobile Internet transformation is further diversifying how people access and experience the Internet and is causing an undeniable surge in bandwidth growth." Shetty added that the projected increase in mobile rich media points to the inevitable transition to 4G and will shift the industry's focus toward all-IP networks.
“The key to success will be delivering video-rich any-play services to users, enabling them to move freely throughout the world while maintaining connectivity to others," said Kelly Ahuja, senior vice president, service provider routing technology group at Cisco, in a statement. "As a result, service providers will have to take into account the need not only for more bandwidth when planning their network architecture but for greater network intelligence as well."
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In anticipation of this growth, Cisco has created a free mobile application called the Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST) for iPhone and BlackBerry Storm devices. This utility program allows users to measure their network speeds over Wi-Fi or cellular networks (as applicable), based on location and time of test. Users of this new application can quickly understand what their phone is capable of doing at any given time. This application also enables users to compare their network speeds with other iPhone and BlackBerry Storm users around the world and contributes to a broader understanding of evolving mobile data usage trends.
The Cisco GIST for iPhone application defines three ranges to help users understand the capabilities of their current connection speeds: Web grade, at 150 to 449 Kbps; audio grade, at 450 to 749 Kbps; and video grade, at more than 750 Kbps. Based on Cisco GIST for iPhone usage to date of more than 42,000 users from 60 countries, the global average Wi-Fi speed is 1153 Kbps and the global average cellular speed is 475 Kbps.
